“Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. For the sake of simplicity choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability or likelihood. Examples include
The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.
The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.
The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.
The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about and also know something about (although you need not be experts).
Participants:
You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants. Their cooperation will be important so be sure to choose people you can count on. These can be either family members or close friends. Basic tools for process improvement: Flowchart. (Air University) Retrieved on 4 Oct 2014 from
Dalkey N. (1969). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion. Santa Monica CA: Rand Corporation
SLP Assignment Expectations
As closely as possible the SLP should follow the detailed example which is cited in the Home Page discussion. You may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it. (This special dispensation is intended to help move things along.) Heres an example.
In the Case 1 writeup:
I constructed a process flowchart using the format described in TUIOPM (2014a). I drew the chart on engineering paper (etc.)
In the Case 1 references:
TUIOPM (2014a). How to draw a process flowchart. (PPT deck for OPM300 Introduction to Operations Management. Available from Example University 1232 Truck Drive Suite 304 Dallas TX 10450).
The SLP writeup should include
The Letters to the Participants explaining the project and requesting their assistance.
The first-round responses from the participants edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).
SLP General Expectations
.
There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write neither more nor less.
In the SLP ONLY references and citations are NOT required. However: If you state a fact express an opinion or use a turn of phrase that isnt your own then you should credit the source just like you would in everyday conversation.
Answer for TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING (Home page)
GLOSSARY
Start: Patient arrives at the front desk.
A. Has patient been admitted?
B. Patient checked into ward.
C. Is patient in labor?
D. Patient sent to admission office.
E. Patient is admitt
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